Saturday, January 25, 2014

With the sixth pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Atlanta Falcons select...

With the NFL draft quickly approaching and nothing else to write about this week, I figured I would go ahead and preview the Falcons' first round draft pick (sixth overall) and the history of that pick, so let's get started with a quick history lesson.

Out of 78 total NFL drafts, the sixth pick has produced 10 Hall of Famers, all of which listed below.

Hall of Fame Players Selected Sixth Overall
1936: Chicago Bears - Joe Stydahar, OT, West Virginia
1937: Boston Redskins - Sammy Baugh, QB, Texas Christian
1938: Detroit Lions - Alex Wojciechowicz, C, Fordham
1948: Detroit Lions - Y.A. Tittle, QB, LSU
1957: Cleveland Browns - Jim Brown, FB, Syracuse
1964: Minnesota Vikings - Carl Eller, Minnesota
1967: Denver Broncos - Floyd Little, HB, Syracuse
1971: New York Jets - John Riggins, HB, Kansas
1978: Green Bay Packers - James Lofton, WR, Stanford
1997: Seattle Seahawks - Walter Jones, OT, Florida State - 2014 Inductee

Listed below are players who have not been selected to the Hall of Fame yet, but ones that I believe have, or will have, an opportunity.

Notable Players selected at number 6 not yet eligible/finalists for the Hall of Fame
1986: New Orleans Saints - Jim Dombrowski, OT, Virginia
1988: Los Angeles Raiders - Tim Brown, WR, Notre Dame
1995: St. Louis Rams - Kevin Carter, DE, Florida
1999: St. Louis Rams - Torry Holt, WR, NC State
2001: New England Patriots - Richard Seymour, DT, Georgia
2006: San Francisco 49ers - Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland

Now am I saying that whomever the Falcons draft at number six is a sure-fire Hall of Famer? What about an annual Pro Bowler? Heck no. This is not the first time the Falcons have picked sixth in the draft. I am sure most Falcons fans remember the 2011 draft where Thomas Dimitroff traded up to the sixth pick in order to select Julio Jones, who I would say has done pretty well for himself. This was the second time the Falcons selected sixth overall, however. In 1977, the first time they held the sixth overall pick, the Falcons selected Warren Bryant, an OT out of Kentucky. I do not know about you, but I have never actually heard of him before researching for this blog.

Atlanta Falcons History with the Sixth Pick in the NFL Draft
1977: Warren Bryant, OT, Kentucky
2011: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

Now that we have looked at Hall of Famers (and potential future ones) drafted at six overall and players selected by the Atlanta Falcons sixth overall, let us take a look at the sixth pick overall the last six years (you see what I did there?).

Players Selected at number 6 the last 6 years
2008: New York Jets - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
2009: Cincinnati Bengals - Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
2010: Seattle Seahawks - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
2011: Atlanta Falcons - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
2012: Dallas Cowboys - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
2013: Cleveland Browns - Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU

We will take this player-by-player, starting in 2008 with Vernon Gholston. When he declared for the draft, Gholston was one of the top pass rushers in the entire country, totaling 14 sacks in his last season with Ohio State. He did nothing but improve his draft stock with a phenomenal NFL Combine, where he tied the highest bench press score with 37 repetitions of 225 pounds. The Jets thought they were getting the next great pass rusher. They could not have been more wrong. After three years, the Jets had had enough of Gholston and cut him. In those three years Gholston was only able to tally 42 tackles with no sacks. According to ESPN, over 600 players registered at least one sack during Gholston's tenure with the Jets.

2009 proved to be a much better year for the sixth pick in the draft with Andre Smith, the OT from Alabama. While he was not the "workout warrior" Gholston was at the combine, Smith has easily had the better career in five years with the Cincinnati Bengals. This "better career" did not start until 2011 for Smith. To that point, injuries and other circumstances had held Smith back. That all changed in 2011 when it was reported that in the offseason, Smith and Cincinnati starting LT Andrew Whitworth had a conversation. Smith allegedly said that it was his "time to step up." He definitely stepped up, earning the starting RT job and ultimately deserving a three-year $18 million contract at the end of last season.

2010 would see another OT drafted with the sixth pick overall. Russell Okung was very highly touted coming out of Oklahoma State. While there, he was selected first-team All-Big 12 twice (2008, 2009), selected first-team All-America twice (2008, 2009), and winner of the Jim Parker trophy (2009) and Big 12 Offensive Lineman of the Year (2009). Okung went on to impress at the NFL Combine, benching 225 pounds 38 times. After being injured during the 2010 and 2011 seasons, Okung finally showed in 2012 why he was so highly touted, by being selected to the Joke of a Bowl, I mean Pro Bowl.

The next year's sixth overall draft pick is one that most Falcons fans have noticed the last couple seasons. With the sixth overall draft pick in the 2011 draft, the Atlanta Falcons made a gigantic splash and traded up in order to select WR Julio Jones, who is an absolute beast. In addition to having a phenomenal career at Alabama, he went on to have a great NFL Combine. There, he posted the longest long jump and the third-fastest 40-yard dash among receivers. What made this even more impressive is the fact that Julio did all of this while having a broken bone in his foot. Go ahead and call me a homer if you want to (I won't deny it), but like I said earlier, Julio is a beast. Through three injury-riddled seasons, Julio has averaged 15.7 yards per catch and has 20 total touchdowns.

Morris Claiborne and Barkevious Mingo were selected with the sixth pick in the 2012 and 2013 drafts, respectively. Since neither has been in the league more than two years, they only get one combined paragraph. With Claiborne, the Cowboys got the player that they considered the second-best player in the draft, behind QB Andrew Luck. With Mingo, the Browns got a pass rusher, who they thought would be a great fit in their new 3-4 defense under DC Ray Horton. While both have been decent, Mingo has clearly shown more promise thus far. Through two years, Claiborne has only registered two INTs. To put that to comparison, Casey Hayward and Janoris Jenkins, two CBs who were selected after Claiborne, have registered 11 total interceptions. To add to this, Jenkins also has three defensive touchdowns. Mingo also had a decent season registering five sacks in his rookie season. Only on rookie DE/OLB taken in the first three rounds did better than Mingo in terms of sacks.

Now that we have looked at the history of the sixth pick in the NFL draft, let us look at what options the Falcons will have this year:

Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina (6-6, 274): The phenomenal DE that seemingly fell off the map this year. I am not a huge fan of Clowney coming to Atlanta, not because of lack of ability, but because he would run into the same problem here that he did this year at South Carolina: double- and triple-teams. Looking at the Falcons' starting defensive line at the beginning of the year (Biermann, Babineaux, Peters, Umenyiora), there is not anybody on that list that will scare many offensive lines. The Falcons would likely line Clowney up in quite a few places in the defensive front seven. The only way I would support the drafting of Jadeveon Clowney, or any other pass rusher, would be if the Falcons went out and signed another defensive lineman in free agency to draw some double-teams away from Clowney.

Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA (6-4, 245): The former HB, Barr transitioned to pass-rush linebacker last year and made his presence known, leading his team in sacks (13.5) and tackles for loss (21.5). This year, while not as amazing, was still pretty good for Barr. He totaled 10 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. I feel about Barr about the same way I feel about Clowney. There is no point in bringing him in if we are not going to get him any help. At the same time, however, the Falcons have to get someone at some point (this goes for Clowney too). Barr, in my opinion at this time, is a better fit for Mike Nolan's defense than Clowney is. I am just cautious about Clowney's work ethic and ability to stand up and play some linebacker. By saying that, do not think that I think Barr is the best fit. That position is reserved to the guy below Barr.

Khalil Mack, LB, Buffalo (6-3, 248): Mack is one of my favorite players in this entire draft. He is a better fit for Nolan's defense than Clowney and Barr. Mack not only had an excellent year rushing the passer, but he is also no slouch in coverage. To go along with his 10.5 sacks, Mack also added three INTs (two for touchdowns), seven passes defensed, and five forced fumbles. I said this for the last two and I am going to say it again, only I am going to change it slightly. Whether or not we draft a DE/LB, the Falcons HAVE TO sign another one in free agency.

Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M (6-5, 305): After almost declaring for the draft last year, Jake Matthews decided to come back for his senior year. To me, that was a good decision, considering how deep the OL class was last year. If you watched a Falcons game this year, you know that the O-line sucked tremendously. Jake Matthews would be an instant improvement at LT or RT. Were the Falcons to draft him, there are two likely scenarios: (1) Jake Matthews starts at LT with Sam Baker and Lamar Holmes moving to RT and RG, respectively or (2) Jake Matthews plays RT with Lamar Holmes still moving to RG and Baker staying at LT.

Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn (6-5, 305): In spite of losing the National Championship to Florida State, Greg Robinson still had a good game for Auburn, who was able to run for a total 232 yards. If Robinson is the pick, I expect the same scenarios as above.

Bonus Sleeper Pick #1: Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame (6-3, 340): Who doesn't love sleeper picks? Louis Nix would be an absolute monster on Atlanta's defensive line. The Falcons might actually be able to stop the run.

Bonus Sleeper Pick #2: Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri (6-5, 275): Why not two sleeper picks? Ealy is a guy that is growing on me, that I think will climb up the draft board and possibly be a top-five draft pick. He should be a good one wherever he ends up.

As of right now, I have absolutely no idea what the Falcons want to draft with that sixth pick. I am not totally sure that they will even keep the pick. I believe that there are scenarios where they could trade up or down in the draft. It will be exciting to see what they do in a few months.

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